Precipitation Is Increasing! Dangerous Driving Conditions Overnight!

Happy Friday Night In The Big Town,

Take a look at the Midnight, February 1st radar image:

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SLICK & HAZARDOUS TONIGHT!  Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will cause significant slick spots through Saturday morning!

Bands of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are now rapidly developing west of Kansas City.  Freezing drizzle continues to fall, but is very light at nearly 10 PM.  I believe our weather team figured out what caused the very slick conditions earlier. It was likely just partially the freezing drizzle that moved in during the mid-afternoon. It was most likely the earlier graupel/snow showers that fell that accumulated lightly on the roads, then melted, then refroze as the freezing drizzle began and combined with the low sun angle as the sun began to set.  Just my thoughts, because that was a lot of slick spot development for such very light freezing drizzle.

Now, this next band of precipitation will likely be heavier with 4-6 inches of snow possible up north.  After this system moves by we will quickly turn our attention to the next storm. This forecast 850 mb map is valid at 6 AM Tuesday. It shows a well defined 850 mb low that will likely help produce wide spread snowfall. But, there is also a 0°C line approaching:

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This next storm is going to come more into focus on Saturday. I will go over the details tomorrow.   Have a great night and please be careful.

Gary

 

Freezing Drizzle Has Caused Many Crashes

Good evening bloggers,

Freezing drizzle spread in during the past few hours and this has caused many accidents, including a few pile-ups. We have had reports of 15 and 20 car pile-ups around KC. So, it is obviously very slick & dangerous right now.

The new data has trended towards some heavier precipitation after midnight that will be in the form of snow north and sleet or freezing rain south.

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We will update the blog this evening. Have a safe Friday Night In The Big Town!  We will discuss this storm and the next one around 9 PM tonight.

Gary

A Shift North On Storm #1

Good morning bloggers,

Here we go again! Another tricky forecast as this storm has now shifted a bit north on the models.  There will be snow, sleet, freezing rain, and freezing drizzle through Saturday morning. Accumulations are likely with over 6 inches possible way up north to a glazing or a dusting farther south. We will have all of the details on 41 Action News today and tonight!

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • This morning: light snow north with some accumulation.  There will be a sharp cut-off near KC. Flurries farther south with little or  no accumulation south of Kansas City, but there may be a dusting to a half inch in the KC metro area.  North winds with wind chills near 10 degrees and temperatures in the 20s.
  • This afternoon: Light snow north with flurries or freezing drizzle farther south. There may be some sleet mixed in with some minor accumulation possible under an inch, especially north of KC.
  • Tonight:  Snow increasing north of Kansas City with 2 to 6 inches total likely farther north near Maryville and Trenton. Lighter accumulations farther south. South of I-70 can expect a change to only sleet of freezing light rain or freezing drizzle. Some minor accumulation of an inch or less is possible.
  • Saturday:  A few flurries and very cold.
  • Sunday:  Sunny with increasing clouds later in the day.
  • Monday-Tuesday:  Increasing chance of snow with accumulations likely.

Weather Discussion:

1Yesterday, I showed you this map and I would like to give a great example of how fast things can change.  The 850 mb flow was forecast to be setting up nicely for a great chance of a dusting to 3 inch snowfall.  But, this map was yesterday mornings data.  Take a look at this next map, which shows the 850 mb flow updated.  The purple line is the 0°C line where we may see the likely snow/sleet/freezing rain line set up, or most likely it will be just north of this line.  Can you see the difference on this second map?  Look at how much farther north that purple line is, which on the big picture is not that much farther north, but it places Kansas City in a spot where the any precipitation that falls will be in forms other than snow:

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Northern Missouri is in a completely different scenario.  And, this is the targeted area for tonight’s storm system.  Temperatures have dropped deep down into the lower or middle 20s and we will likely see a winter type of precipitation at all locations, but with the main energy going just a bit farther north areas south of I-70 are likely only going to get a few hundredths of an inch once again. We have been through this many times this winter.  Farther north in the snow bands the precipitation will be heavier and three or four inches are likely around Maryville and Trenton, MO.

This is just storm #1 of a series of storm systems. There will likely be a storm #2 and #3 within the next ten days.  A cold and stormy pattern has set up.

Here is a look into the Monday night-Tuesday storm. You are looking at the total precipitation ending Tuesday evening and our area is in the wide spread snow area with some higher accumulations possible. The darker blue shade indicates 0.50″ to 0.75″ totals.  I do believe we will not miss this storm!  And, it will be followed up by another one.

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Let us know what you are experiencing and we will try to update the blog later this today.

Gary

Increasing Chance Of Snow In KC & Super Bowl Sunday Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

From yesterday’s press release “Weather2020 stands by original Super Bowl XLVII Weather Forecast on January 6.  As originally forecasted, Weather 2020 expects warmer air to be drawn into the areas of New York City and New Jersey on Saturday, Feb. 1, causing temperatures to surge into the 40s through the morning of Super Bowl Sunday. A cool down is expected before kickoff but chances for snow remain at zero percent.”  And, here is an excerpt from the National Weather Service in New York City this morning, “With deep southerly flow ahead of the cold front and the slower timing of the passage will allow for warmer air to move in”.  This is why we stand by the statement,”The LRC is the best weather forecasting tool known in the field of meteorology today”. We have “known” that this part of the weather pattern would be cycling through right around Super Bowl Sunday. We made our forecast for this weekend 50 days ago on the Weather 2020 app.  We said there may be some rain and a warm up into the 50s and NO SNOW WILL IMPACT THE SUPER BOWL!  And, this was very different than the message/forecast that got out to the media from other sources.  It may still get into the 50s Sunday ahead of that cold front in East Rutherford!

The same pattern that is producing the forecasted east coast warm-up this weekend is going to bring Kansas City a good chance of accumulating snow.  There is a series of storm systems that will begin affecting us soon.   If you remember a couple of weeks ago we predicted five storm systems would affect KC between around February 1st and the first five days of March, with the first one arriving between February 1st and 4th. Well, the first two may arrive between now and February 4th.  And, do you remember what happened in the last cycle, 57 days before February 1st on December 5th?  We had surprise snow showers around 2 to 5 AM, especially between KCI Airport and Liberty with 1.2" of snow reported at KCI. Over an inch from a strange snow shower band.  Do you remember this? I do, as you blasted us for missing that forecast. Well, we are in that part of the pattern again, and there may be a little band of snow, or mixed showers today, and then we will begin focusing on a much better chance of accumulating snow later tonight, and especially Friday night.

The National Weather Service issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for this morning for areas north of Kansas City, but I really can’t figure out why. Temperatures are above freezing everywhere and there is just a thin band of mixed showers moving through.  And, with the wind blowing so hard there may be some wet surfaces, but no freezing rain.  We will monitor it closely.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Now-Noon:  Thickening clouds with a band of light snow, rain, or mixed precipitation developing way up to the north.  WINDY!  The winds will gust to 40 mph this morning.  Temperatures warming to near 40°
  • Noon-6 PM:  A thin band of showers will move across, but they will not last long.  South-southwest winds 15-40 mph switching to the north around 6 or 7 PM. High:  43°
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with a good chance of light snow north of I-70, and most likely north of KC after around 3 AM.  Some minor accumulations of under an inch are possible way up north.
  • Friday:  A chance of snow, mainly north again.  And, a chance of freezing drizzle and sleet farther south. Highs in the 20s with northeast winds 5-15 mph.
  • Friday Night:  A nearly 100% chance of snow with a dusting to 3 inches possible.  There may also be some sleet & freezing drizzle farther south limiting totals.  Low:  19°
  • Saturday:  Snow ending early!  High:  26°
  • Monday night-Tuesday: A better chance of wide spread snow with accumulations likely!

There has been a blocking ridge in place near or just off the west coast. This has been preventing storm systems from coming into California, but this ridge just broke down for the time being and a storm is moving into California tonight and this is heading towards KC.  There will be a tight temperature gradient, or baroclinic zone setting up over Kansas, Oklahoma, and south into the Texas Panhandle.  As the west coast system zips our way there may be a wave forming on the baroclinic zone, and this is forecast to happen Friday night:

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I will finish the blog around 8 or 9 AM……

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As I said, there is a series of storm systems that will be affecting us. The second one in the series will be approaching the region Monday and snow is likely Monday night into Tuesday.  We will discuss this second storm in more detail in the next few days.

Have a great day, and thank you so much for sharing in this exciting weather experience.

Gary

Super Bowl Sunday Forecast Is Going To Verify!

Good afternoon Weather2020 fans,

Weather2020 made a forecast for the Super Bowl 50 days ago. And, then we had enough confidence in the LRC to send out a press release four weeks ago saying that “Snow will not impact the Super Bowl”, and temperatures may reach into the 50s leading up to the Super Bowl.  Other forecasts, only a few as no one realizes that long range forecasts can be made with any level of accuracy, were calling for a major snow storm on the Super Bowl.  We are still four days away from the Super Bowl. Even a four day forecast is extremely challenging. A 10 to 15 day forecast with any level of accuracy is said to be impossible, but a 50 day forecast? We used to look back, but in the past few years we have been projecting forward showing what the pattern will likely look like and getting it right. Our forecasts aren’t 100% accurate but perhaps around 60%. The LRC helps describe the cycling weather pattern and  is close to that 100% level, perhaps at around 80 to 9o%. It is up to the weather forecaster to use this new technology and make accurate forecasts, just like a seven day forecast is made today.  We “know” what the weather pattern is going to look like.

Please go back and look at the blog entry from January 9, 2014:  Super Bowl Forecast Made Four Weeks Ago We had just enough confidence to make this forecast that will likely verify in the next four days.

This map, below, shows a surface forecast four days before Super Bowl Sunday,  and it is lining up with the same pattern that cycled through in LRC Cycle 2 in early December. The weather pattern cycles and sets up, according to Lezak’s Recurring Cycle,  from late September into November. Every year is unique, and I think we can all agree that this pattern we are experiencing now has never happened before. Here is a forecast from the GFS model valid the evening before the Super Bowl:

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We have been describing the weather pattern, the big LRC puzzle, in the upper level flow for over 20 years now. I usually show you the upper level flow and how it compares from cycle to cycle, and rarely show the surface comparisons.  Take a look at what happened in the last LRC cycle and compare it to the map above, and the latest data is coming even more in line. This is one of the big reason’s we forecasted the potential warm-up and no snow.

Surface December 5

This surface map, above, is from December 5th.  We have been describing the cycling pattern at close to 57 days since it began developing in late September and early October. These two maps show the surface features in almost the same spots. This is not a coincidence and 57 to 58 days before the Super Bowl.  The warm front will likely move through New Jersey and New York allowing for the forecasted warming, and the forecast for no snow on Super Bowl Sunday!

We concentrate on Kansas City in this blog right now. The Weather 2020 app provides forecasts for the entire United States up to 12 weeks into the future.

The new data is continuing a trend towards some snow, most likely Friday night with some minor accumulations.  And, there could be few bands of light snow later Thursday night into Friday. We will go over the latest data on 41 Action News tonight.  Please let us know if you have any questions at all. Have a great day and we will have an updated blog by Thursday morning.

Gary Lezak

 

Another Windy Warm-Up!

Good morning bloggers,

Have you downloaded the Weather2020 app yet? It is currently only available on ios7 devices such as iPad, iPod, and iPhone devices.  Just go to the app store and search for Weather 2020 and you can download it for free!

Another windy warm-up will develop later today into Thursday. It is starting out in the single digits this morning, but temperatures should jump all the way into the 40s this afternoon. The warming trend will continue into Thursday until our next cold front approaches and passes through Thursday evening. This cold front will move through with another blast of cold Thursday night.  Now, will we see any snow?

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The pressure gradient will be tightening up which will result in a big increase in wind again today into Thursday. It is getting drier and drier, so we really need some moisture as spring approaches in the next six weeks.   That cold front will be approaching Thursday evening:

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And, by Friday some light snow will be developing all around us:

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There has been a blocking ridge near the west coast of North America and it has helped block storm systems from producing any rain or snow in California in 2014.  The block has briefly broken down and a stormy broke through and is approaching the coast this morning. Warm air is being drawn in ahead of the system and the snow levels will be high today before falling to lake level tonight. Lake Tahoe is one of my favorite places in this world, and it is located on the California/Nevada border. Yes, the lake is partially in California and partially in Nevada and at around 6,200 feet above sea level. It is pretty big and 22 miles long by around 12 miles wide, and 1,600 feet deep. Here is their forecast for the first measurable precipitation of 2014:

Screen Shot 2014-01-29 at 7.58.47 AM

The series of waves that will impact California will be approaching Kansas City Thursday night.  As these waves approach we will a pretty big warm-up. The one big limiting factor will likely be thick high cloud cover tomorrow, otherwise 50s would be likely again.  Here is the 850 mb flow forecast for tomorrow morning showing the warm air spreading across ahead of the cold front up north:

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The cold front will move through and then the attention will be focused on that series of waves approaching from California.  The main wave will track across Kansas and over Missouri Friday night, but how will it impact us? Some snow is likely and it could be anywhere from a dusting to possibly three inches or so. Haven’t we been through this a few times already this winter? Yes! We will just have to see how it all comes together in the next couple of days.  I really wish I could show you how it will all be coming together for the potential snowfall accumulations, but there are more negative factors than positive ones at the moment.

Have a great morning!

Gary

Could Kansas City See Some Snow Soon?

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is going through some rather significant changes and it should lead to snow chances in our near future.  There are three storm systems that have my attention today. Storm #1 will be fast moving system that will be weak and it could bring us a band of light snow Friday or more likely Friday night with minor accumulations possible. It is the second system that has the much better opportunity to create the conditions for a major winter storm near Kansas City, but hang on as it is still six to seven days away. And, then there is a third one sometime later next week that will likely affect our area as well.  Here is a graphic I showed on the air last night. We may be increasing both of these chances soon. I already increased Friday’s from 20 to 30%, but the timing may be more like Friday night:

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The blocking ridge that has been one of the main reason’s for the extremely dry weather in California this winter is going to break down a bit and shift west, or retrogress.  The blue squiggly line represents the high amplitude ridge, and downstream the north cross Polar flow.

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In just the next 48 hours the ridge will be breaking down and shifting west as you can see below. A storm breaks through, but it also breaks up as it tried to get through that tough blocking ridge.  This is the energy that we will watch evolve and head our way and we may get a band or two of snow from this depending on how it tracks across the plains Friday  into Friday night.

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The latest NAM model predicts a band of snow right smack over KC Friday evening. Hang on bloggers, this is the 84 hour NAM model. But, there is a trend in this direction.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great Tuesday and we will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

Another Dry Arctic Blast For KC

Good morning bloggers,

We experienced quite a change Sunday evening as the temperatures dropped from the 50s to the 20s in a short period of time and it snowed. I didn’t see any rain drops, just snowflakes about an hour after the cold front blasted through. But, of course, it wasn’t measurable snow and we are now at 17 days in a row without measurable precipitation here. We just had another dry Arctic blast!  The temperatures will steady out in the next hour or so and then go back up to a forecast high of around 14° with sunshine this afternoon.

Screen Shot 2014-01-27 at 7.04.59 AM

The wind will be dying down later this afternoon allowing temperatures to drop to near zero tonight. It would have been much colder if we had any snow on the ground, or even near by, but it is just brown and dry.

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This cold weather pattern will continue into the first half of February and our area will finally have some chances for measurable precipitation during this next month. We have not really been in the right spot for the more organized areas of precipitation from these storm systems and we will have to see if that trend continues when these next few chances of rain and snow arrive. The first potential storm system will approach the area from the west within the next seven days.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather2020 blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

Arctic Front Blowing Through With 56 MPH Winds & Mixed Showers

Good evening bloggers,

The Arctic Front is blowing through rain/snow showers and 56 mph wind gusts.  Here is the surface map:

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Look at the 7:20 PM radar:

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Let us know what you experience! What an evening!  Don’t tell me that our weather is boring. This is almost too much to believe. It was 56° at 4:30 PM (57° for the high), and now it is snowing and 39° at 7:40 PM with 58 mph winds.  This is an extremely rare event, in fact, I don’t think I have ever experienced anything like this before in my 51 years!  How about you?

Gary

Here Comes Arctic Blast #8

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

We will get to enjoy a nice warm-up ahead of the next Arctic Blast today.  The Arctic front is currently on the North Dakota/South Dakota border at 8 AM this morning and it is now beginning a surge south.  Here is the forecast surface map valid at 6 PM tonight:

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This latest Arctic front will blast through this evening dropping temperatures into the single digits by morning.  It reached the lower 50s by 10:30 AM. Let’s see how high the temperatures will get today ahead of the strong front. It feels great out there!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great Sunday!

Gary