Good morning bloggers,

The sun came out early today, it is the first sunshine in four days!

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny & very cold. North winds at 10-20 mph with wind chills below zero. High:  14°
  • Tonight:  Clear & Frigid.  Low:  -5°

It has been a very long time since it was even freezing. It was 8 PM on January 30th, so by 8 AM this morning it will have been 252 hours, or 10 1/2 days!

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There is a 100% chance of a huge warm-up during the next ten days.  How high will it go?  The warming trend will begin Wednesday, but the first surge of warmer air will be tempered by a wave of energy coming across and digging into the plains states early Wednesday:

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This disturbance may produce a band of snow or mixed showers  during the day Wednesday with some minor accumulation possible:

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This mid-week disturbance is still suspect on whether it will produce an precipitation in our area, and we will show this on our Powercast on 41 Action News.  After Wednesday, the storm systems will shift way up to the north for a while with zonal flow aloft developing. Zonal flow means west to east flow:

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The flow aloft is then forecast to become zonal with the jet stream retreating north. There is no blocking aloft so this retreat north will have to result in a rather substantial warming trend.

We will go over the warmer details tonight beginning at 4 PM on 41 Action News, and then after the Olympics around 10:30 PM tonight.  Have a great start to the week.

Gary

40 thoughts on “A Changing Weather Pattern

  1. Let the melting begin!!!
    NWS: An increasing sun angle and above freezing temperatures should promote melting throughout the long-range forecast period especially across the southwest, helping the weekend`s southwest winds to usher in mid to upper 40 degree temperatures for Saturday and Sunday, and possibly 50s by Monday.

    • I’m really looking forward to the melting, but I’m not. We had a water leak over the weekend that we thought was coming from a sink in our master bathroom above the garage. Well, plumber cut a hole in the ceiling around the water spots and the pipes were dry. After some head scratching, we’re thinking snow/ice somehow got into a ~4′ wide by 30′ long empty space behind the master bathroom (loose roof vent/flashing?) and melted on Saturday when the temp was near freezing. If that is true, we’ll see more leaking come the end of the week. :/

      • Ice dams are really bad right now…Most people are having issues in the valley or near the guttering where the snow slightly melts and than re-freezes, the ice works it way under the shingles. When it warms up in a couple days that ice is going to melt and leak through the roof/attic. The only way to prevent that is to install ice/water shield when the roof is replaced or have heat strips to melt the snow before it becomes an issue.

        • Yes, ice dams are bad right now! 3 out of 22 homes I manage have leaks. Yuck! I see lots Icicles everywhere! I’m not exactly looking forward to Wednesday….

    • Yep, I will still have piles, they never melted from way back in
      the start of December. They are shaded by my home.

      I had a snow plow guy plow snow ariound my trees when he did the
      streets for extra moisture. Neighbor rolled huge snow balls 4-5 feet
      around around his tress Saturday to water them.

      • Excellent ideas! Your trees will thank you for the moisture . . . when the ground thaws. You are also putting a blanket over the roots to keep them warm, and that is a good thing, IME.

  2. OK, Wed, just out of spite as the warm front moves by I bet we pick up 2-4 inches
    of snow, I have seen it in the past.

    We cleared and tanked to -5 degrees this morning.

    For the first nine days of Feb. avg high 19.7 degrees avd low 0.1 degree

    FIVE DAYS BELOW ZERO.SO FAR ADD IN TODAY AND TURSDAY
    AND 7 OF 11 WILL BE BELOW ZERO.

    19-7 degrees below the avg norm for the month.

  3. Hey Gary you talked about in like two weeks we we’re going to experience anythere Arctic blast and a possible storm system to effect the metro and a warm in between then. When do you see that happen for us here? After Wednesday possible snow chance. Do you see more snow chances here around the end of February?

  4. So, I am supposed to be flying in to Atlanta on Thursday afternoon with my 3 kids in tow. Any thoughts on our chances for actually getting there (looking at all the forecasts for the ice storm/winter weather down that way again) and getting out of there & on down to FL??

  5. Hello Gary,
    I have a weather question that has been on my mind for some time. In the summer a front may stall and the low will wobble around and we can have rain for days on end. This doesn’t seem to happen with winter systems. Is there a meteorological reason for this?? Knew you could explain.

    • Elaine,

      Great question. Right now, the flow aloft is very strong. The jet stream is caused by temperature contrast and the winds above us around 20 to 40,000 feet up are very strong and weather systems move a bit faster. In the summer the temperatures are more uniform, so the surface systems stall and can last for hours or days.

      Gary

  6. Was this zonal flow something that was predicted by the LRC? The LRC called for several disturbances every few days throughout the month of February. Today’s blog implies warmer temps and calmer weather. Thank you.

    Matt

    • Zonal flow does just that it keeps the disturbances riding along the river of air we call a jet stream although it does usually usher in quite warmer air but cold air can get pulled into a system sometimes!!! It’s the ” Pineapple Express ” embrace it

  7. So where is this sunny day? Been socked in the clouds down in La Cygne all day today. You can bet they will clear out as night time approaches though and cause the temps to crash.

  8. The latest NAM has a heck of a storm going up the east coast later this week. Big time snowfall. If I’m not mistaking, the LRC flawed on this part of the country in regards to the winter forecast. They have been hammered all winter long. I think the LRC under estimated the strength of this trough in the east. What a cold winter it has been.

    Should give credit to the farmer’s almanac, they screamed a cold winter all along.

    The warming trend that is about to kick in later this week for KC is just about right for the cycling pattern this year. Even know we are well below average temps this winter so far in KC, we still have experienced stretches of warmer and less active periods. We’re about to cycle into that phase now. But, we all know what happens after that, the cold and storms have returned. The pattern looks to likely turn cold again and with spring approaching, maybe some powerful storms in the near future for KC heading into late this month and into March.

    BTW, does it rain during the winter anymore??? The last 4 out 5 years every snow event for the most part has started snow. Remember when we use to have rain change to snow?? rain/snow lines…it’s either all snow or nothing. AMAZING. Also, we have now had (1) 10+ inch snow 4 out of the last 5 years. Some years with 2 or 3. I think this winter will finish with 2 or 3 also.

    With this pattern, what will this mean for spring. One would guess that with all the air mass changes, fronts may stall, we could have several set-ups for heavy rain.

  9. ~1970-1989 was cold
    ~1990-2009 was warm
    ~2010-2029 will be cold

    Can anyone find a graph of below zero days prior to 1970? I know all the Global Warming (or should I say Climate Change to be politically correct?) fanatics are pushing this agenda on how we don’t have cold anymore, and the below zero days have decreased significantly since 1970 – but all these sources fail to cite below zero days prior to 1970.

  10. Latest GFS showing big storm going out to sea and not up the east coast. The battle between the models has begun for the folks out east.

    GFS still showing something for us Wed. also. Maybe a bit of snow. We likely won’t break freezing Wed. either.

  11. With the 1.6″ I received here at 12th and Grand in ST. JOSEPH Sunday, my season total thus far in up to 31.65″

    I mentioned early in the season I though this was going to be another 30+ inch season and it appears the whole area is on track for a 30″ – 45″ season!! Maybe the disturbance moving through Wednesday will surprise us with an inch somewhere. Based off this Winter I wouldn’t doubt it. Looking forward to the next storm!!

    • Warmer temps yes. tornado’s he!! no. Nothing good comes from them except damage and destruction. Snow can cause problems but has a positive side as well. Hurricanes, tornados and drought do not.

  12. As long as I have lived in Missouri, the first 20 years in the middle of the State, then Independence for the last (not going to say) years, I’m used to the changes we see during the year. That said, I am so very ready for our wet, wild Springtime, then our amazing Summer Storms. I know Gary loves snow, but I have to say, enough, already! Gary? What do you think? Will Spring come in as a Lion or a Lamb? I’ll leave it to the people who post often here, to ask the weather questions, but I love reading everything all have to say. I even check out the links that are posted. Thanks for keeping me interested in our wonderful weather, all you bloggers! Gary, please ask your team to work on the app for Android, so I can put it on my phone!

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