A severe weather set-up is likely this weekend, and we have been expecting it to form around this week. The severe weather calendar, a forecast I made back in March, will likely be off by a few days. I should have considered all four previous cycles, done an average number of days, and I would have picked this weekend out well. Anyway, that is a forecaster error in using the LRC, but the LRC doesn’t fail. The pattern is cycling. And, when you look at these maps, you can see how each cycle lines up with this week. You can click on the first map, let it enlarge, and then just click on that map to go through the sequence:
The weather pattern setting up this weekend is looking more and more like a serious severe weather risk. We will blog about this set up later this week. Go to the KSHB blog at www.weatherblog.kshb.com for more details.
A rather incredible weather event is taking place in Kansas City this evening. The snow continues about 50 miles either side of the state line with rain surrounding the snow. We are in the core of a wedge of cold air with temperatures 33-34. The temperatures will either hold here or drop a degree. Every degree colder will make a huge difference on accumulations.
5 PM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
At this moment, the snow is sticking to cars, grassy surfaces and super structures. Some paved surfaces have slushy spots. Incredible! We expect the snow to continue all night, then changing to rain Friday morning as warmer air gets pulled in from the east as the upper low forms to our south putting us in eastern flow aloft! Total accumulations on grassy surfaces will be a dusting to 4″. We will have to watch the roads if temperatures drop to 31-32.
Here is a picture from Olathe, near K7 at about 4 PM Thursday. Since this time about an inch has fallen in spots. What a day! What a May day!
If it snows more than 1.7″ it will be the biggest snow ever for May. May 3, 1907…1.7″ is the only significant snow in Kansas City history. Let’s see how much falls tonight.
Thank you for coming to the Weather2020 blog and let us know what you are experiencing.
Welcome to the end of April into early May Weather 2020 fans,
The same pattern continues to cycle at between 50 and 55 days. There are two major concepts to the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle):
Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established in the fall between the end of September and early November and continue through fall, winter, spring and into the next summer The pattern cycles, and regularly. A new cycle length also gets established during the fall as well and can range from 35 to 75 days.
The pattern cycles, and regularly. A new cycle length also gets established during the fall as well and can range from 35 to 75 days.
By knowing where the long term long-wave troughs and ridges line up for the year seasonal outlooks can be made by the forecaster. These seasonal outlooks will have an increased chance of being accurate by using knowledge of the LRC. And, by know the cycle length, specific forecasts for a series of dates can be made weeks to months into the future. Again, the talented weather forecaster can make accurate long range predictions.
We have obviously, to our Weather 2020 team anyway, been in a pattern that has unique characteristics to this season. The cold fronts and storm systems in the past few weeks seem to be related. It is not a coincidence that these storm systems have been producing record amounts of snow and rain. Boulder, CO already with 47 inches of snow in April, wow! And, Milwaukee, WI with their wettest beginning to the year on record. These areas will continue to get hit as they are being influenced by the two major concepts of what the LRC is all about. Where-ever you live across the United States I think you would agree that these storms seem to be related. Just watch what happens once again this week. It’s the LRC!
Another storm is moving into the west coast and will bump into a blocking pattern this week. This is the fourth full cycle of this year’s LRC and we are about to move into LRC cycle 5. Let’s look at this part of the pattern from the past two cycles:
The above map is from the last cycle on March 10th, and the map below is from January 15th, or 54 days before March 10th, which is 52 days before this week’s closing off upper low later this week. You can click on the maps for a larger view.
There are seasonal differences in strength and position of the jet stream and the upper level flow. It is a really complex puzzle of the upper level atmosphere, and the cycling pattern is difficult to see. If you don’t pay close attention to it day to day it becomes quite difficult to see.
I will post this week’s version of LRC Cycle 4 in a couple of days….
A storm is about to affect the Rocky Mountain states and then the middle part of America into the Great Lakes this week. We have had our eyes on this storm for months now. Severe weather risks will arrive this week, but just like many of the storm systems in this year’s cycles a lot of the bigger thunderstorms have been forming in the colder air. The one storm that spreads the energy out ahead of the cold fronts will be arriving in the middle of May. So, storm chasers hang in there for one or two big chase weeks coming up between now and the first ten days of June.
We have been experimenting with long range forecasts based on the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle), and have had some rather significant success. This is still an experimental process and we will continue to improve in the next few weeks/months/years. About 100 days ago I knew I would be coming to Marina del Rey to visit my mom for her 76th birthday. We just had a great visit! In planning this trip, I knew, as Chief Meteorologist at KSHB-TV, that I could not be gone if there is a potential severe weather outbreak. And, I was a bit concerned in looking at the pattern 100 days ago, 75 days ago, and 50 days ago to current. I “knew” what the pattern would look like. How? If there is no LRC, then there is no way I would “know”. But, there is a cycling pattern that we have been sharing with you for about a decade now. I found this amazing meteorological puzzle in the 1980s and it is now almost 30 years later, and yet the meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts that can see this fascinating puzzle of the cycling weather patterns seems to be limited to people that have experienced this with me over the years. Well, we believe that 2013 is the year more will see what we see! We believe the LRC is the best forecasting tool in the field of meteorology today.
Okay, so what is going to happen this week? We are in the fourth LRC cycle. Let’s take a look:
The map above is from when this year’s weather pattern, this year’s fascinating weather pattern that produced “Superstorm Sandy”, perhaps the signature storm of this year’s pattern. This storm began evolving during the second week of November, LRC Cycle 1. The map below is from LRC Cycle 2:rm
About 10 days after “Superstorm Sandy”, this storm evolved in November, and again around New Year’s Day 2013. In cycle 3, in February, when the Arctic Oscillation went to near record negative low levels we had the next version of this part of the pattern.
This third cycle was the most fascinating one for Kansas City as the second of three major snowstorms was about to strike the heartland. For the northeast how could you say this was the most impressive cycle when “Superstorm Sandy” hit in cycle one, and a major blizzard occured in LRC Cycle 2. So, what’s next? This week’s storm is next!
I waited until Thursday, April 18th to post this map that just came out. We knew on February 24th that this storm would return around April 16th, or exactly 51 days later. And, here it is. The features are just a bit farther north and resulted in a major snowstorm farther north and thunderstorms near Kansas City. All four cycles displayed, and forecasted by using our knowledge of the LRC:
I finished this blog entry after waiting for the results of this latest storm that produced 4 to 7 inches of rain in Chicago and some severe weather farther south. You can get your long range forecast based on this cycling pattern right now with the LRC Experience on this site! This storm will be returning in around 51 days!
The weather pattern continues to be fascinating, at least to our weather team. What do you think? It was snowing this morning as I was leaving for California to visit my mom for her birthday this weekend. It was snowing on April 11th! Wow! Now, it was just a snow shower, but still significant. Could more snow be on the way to the plains next week? This weather pattern continues to be a cold one with just brief periods of warmer weather. Summer is coming, I promise, but we have to be patient.
The weather pattern is currently moving deeper into the fourth cycle of this year’s LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle). And, a storm system just blasted across the United States with a powerful April cold front, blizzards, severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, and heavy rains. This most recent storm was directly related to the February 20th-21st storm system, so it only makes sense that another major storm would be showing up for next week. Here is the latest 84 hour 500 mb forecast from the NAM model:
The map above is the forecast for 00z April 16, 2013. The map below is from the previous cycle on 12z February 24, 2013, or 51 days before the current developing set-up, or right on the 50-55 day cycle. You can click on the map, and then just click in the middle, or anywhere on that map and it will cycle through the two maps.
This next storm is right on schedule. I knew I was coming out to visit my mom about two months ago, and I expected this storm to be somewhat impacting. We made the forecast for this next week before the last cycle was completed. The winter potential of this next storm is rather impressive. I will add more thoughts later as I dig deeper into this fascinating weather pattern while I am in California. It is cloudy here this morning with a deeper marine layer.
Have a great weekend and check back in for the next blog by Sunday!
Take a look at this 8 AM surface map on April 9th, wow:
Yes, that is 12 degrees to 68 degrees in a very short distance. A powerful storm with an associated cold front is moving out into the plains with a severe weather risk today. Go to the Action Weather Blog for more details at www.kshb.com.
I am about to show you yet another example of the LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) and how the pattern continues to cycle at somewhere between 50 and 55 days. This pattern began in the fall and continued through winter, and now it continues as we are moving through spring, and yet it is the “same pattern”. Now, by “same” doesn’t mean exactly the same. There are seasonal differences and other influences as we have been describing for years. A storm in one cycle may have very little influence on specific locations, but in the next cycle that same part of the pattern can produce very different results in how the surface sets up and how we experience weather as human beings.
Let’s take a look at LRC Cycle 2 around Christmas Day:
Take a look at three main features; 1) the upper low forming over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, 2) the upper high far to the north just north of Hudson Bay, and 3) the upper low just north of Minnesota. Now compare it to what is forecast to happen next week. All three features are there, just slightly different due to various influences that we are still identifying:
Can you see the similarities? It is not a coincidence. And, our team has been predicting this storm to arrive durin this next week. But, again, predicting exactly what it will do is an art that a good meteorologist can accurately predict.
Severe Weather Next Week?
How this storm develops and tracks early next week will decide where and how significant any severe thunderstorms will become. The set-up is starting to look rather impressive, but it isn’t all together yet. The cold front is still heading in to the system at 3 PM Monday. The details will be ironed out soon.
New Jersey the target again! Should you be surprised? If you know anything about the LRC, then you will not be shocked that yet another storm is forming on the New Jersey shore. And, the Super-Storm Sandy part of the weather pattern is coming back in the next few weeks. So, get ready for an even stronger storm system! This current storm is being spawned from the part of the weather pattern that has produced severe weather impacting storm systems in all four cycles and today it is going to intensify near the mid-Atlantic coast…..again!
We are almost to the end of March and winter keeps happening deep to the south. We have showed you that the AO going to near record low levels has likely been one of the indications of this cold weather pattern. The pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC regardless of what is happening with these indices, but it can not be understated that the AO, NAO, ENSO, and other indexes have influences for sure!
I have been comparing all of the cycles and I could clearly show you that it isn’t just this one day, but the entire weather pattern that is cycling at around 51 to 53 days this season, give or take a few days. This example, however, likely shows the influence of the AO and NAO on the weather pattern. And, it isn’t just where the index was at the time of this date, but where the trend was at the time. If the AO was already negative and then dipped deeper into the negative like what just happened, then the pattern reacts by a major blocking influence. The amplitude of these indexes is crucial. The two cycles that compare the best are LRC Cycle 2 and this most recent LRC cycle 4. The map above is December 9th when the AO did something similar to this latest version, but not as extreme. As a result, the blocking across northern Canada was not as apparent and we didn’t have as much cold air immediately available. And, there are seasonal differences as well. This next map is from the most current cycle of the LRC. It is from March 23, 2013 or 105 days later. This is right down the middle of the cycle sweet spot or 52.5 days!
Just click on either map. And, then when it enlarges click in the middle of that map. Do it over and over again and you can see how the maps line up. It is not a coincidence. It is the LRC!
The Arctic Oscillation dipped into the negative dropping to -5.5 in the past week. But, in the past 31 days the weather in Kansas City has been absolutely amazing. A very rare month of weather and it isn’t quite done yet. Another major storm is blasting the middle part of the nation this weekend.
Before February 21st, Kansas City had a 2 -3 inch impacting storm on December 20th and a total of 5 inches of snow for the entire winter. What happened in the next 31 days is hard to believe. Let’s take a look:
31 Wild Days In Kansas City
Impact 1: February 21, 2013 Major Snowstorm Slams The KC Metro Area:
Thunderstorms with snow produced lightning and thunder and tremendous snowfall rates
The snowfall rate likely came close to 4 inches per hour few a few minutes at a time, with 2 to 3 inch snowfall rates for four consecutive hours
The bulls eye was right over the south side of the KC metro area
I measured one foot in front of KSHB-TV at 4720 Oak Street
It had to be scary for many people who had to abandon their cars on the highways when they got stuck. The snow came down so hard and so fast that close to ten inches of snow, and drifts up to 15 or 20 inches of snow, caused vehicles to get stuck. There are a lot of good samaritans who helped out all over the city.
Here is the winter storm summary from the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill:
Impact 2: February 23, 2013
The temperature dropped to 1°….ONE DEGREE!
Impact 3: February 25-26, 2013 Major Snowstorm #2
Snow begins falling on the 25th. This storm was warmer than the previous one, but ended up producing high snowfall totals again. KCI Airport had 11 inches of snow from this two day event:
Impact 4: March comes in like a lion
Snow showers on March 1st and 2nd with a cold blast!
Impact 5: Storm produces rain on March 8, 9, 10
Storm produces over an inch of rain
Impact 6: Record Warmth March 15th
The high temperature reached 83°
Impact 7: St. Patrick’s Day Storm
Another cold blast greets St. Patrick’s Day with snowflakes, sleet, and then a cold rain. 0.30″ of rain at KCI Airport
Impact 8: March 21st
Impact 9: March 23rd-24th
I finished this blog on the KSHB-TV weather blog. Have a great week! I want to now do a comparison of how this storm lined up with previous cycles.
A storm, that we have been forecasting for 100 days now, is developing today over the Rocky Mountains and right on schedule. It will intensify and move out into the plains. A major snowstorm will be targeting Kansas City and then areas off to the north and east from there, but also producing a severe weather set-up near the Gulf Coast.
The storm moving out into the plains this weekend has some tricks for meteorologists trying to predict snowfall totals. And, I am one of them at KSHB-TV in Kansas City. We are right now thinking that 5 to 10 inches of snow will fall near Kansas City by Sunday morning. Let’s see what happens.
I will add more here later………….
Severe thunderstorms are likely going to break out over the deep south while snow falls just to the northwest. This is a storm that is right on the LRC cycle and one we have been prediction for over 100 days now since the second cycle repeat of this storm during the second week of December. Let’s take a look beginning with the SPC severe weather outlook for this weekend:
Here is the discussion from the SPC: ” As the upper trough advances…increasing west southwesterly flow aloft will contribute to shear supportive of organized/rotating storms. Along with the hail potential….locally damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear possible. Despite some uncertainties, it appears that severe potential will become widespread/substantial enough to warrant inclusion of 30% severe probability this forecast.
Our Weather 2020 team has been forecasting this severe weather set up for this storm for over 1o0 days now and this storm is falling right into place, but with seasonal differences and other influences such as the AO, NAO, ENSO, as you can read in previous Weather 2020 blog entries and on OSNW3LRC Blog. Let’s take a look:
This map above is from October 17, 2012, LRC Cycle 1 and the severe weather risk below:
And, this next map is from LRC Cycle 2 on December 10th:
This next map, above shows LRC Cycle 2 on December 10, 2010, and again severe weather occurred with this storm:
The weather pattern continues to cycle and right on schedule in cycle 3 the storm shows up again at the end of January:
And here is LRC Cycle 3 on January 30th:
And, as you can see above, the severe weather risk in the last cycle lines up with the severe weather risk tomorrow (posted near the top of the page), but farther south hugging the Gulf coast due to the blocking pattern and deeply negative Arctic Oscillation. This part of the pattern will likely produce a major severe weather outbreak in the next cycle around May 9th to 15th.
Have a great weekend. We will be following these developments on Tornado Alley Live. And over on the Action Weather blog at kshb.com. The Super-storm Sandy part of the pattern will be returning in the next two weeks as this wild weather pattern continues.