We have something very special that is still three weeks away from coming out. As soon as it is ready we will let you know. And, this site will change, but we want to continue sharing the LRC and this exciting weather pattern that has now set up for the season with you!
This first 500 mb forecast shows a rather vigorous storm moving up the east coast in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The correct way of saying would be, “moving over the eastern seaboard” as this is not at the surface:
You can click on the map for a larger view. Yes, a surface storm is associated with this as well. This storm is caught in the cycling weather pattern that is called Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC). I actually just posted on an ACCU Weather forum for the first time today:
“The new LRC is now in play! This is my first post on this forum and it is really a very important day. This weather pattern, that will be cycling for the next 11 months, has become established. There are a few very important features that are appearing now. And, these features will be returning at regularly scheduled times. Identifying the cycle length of the weather pattern that cycles within the westerlies is essential. I believe we have a good start, but for now we will wait another couple of weeks. I have been working on this since the early 1980s when I was looking at the 500 mb charts at the Engineering Laboratory at the University of Oklahoma, where the meteorology department was located back then. Jeff Hutton, a DDC NWS forecaster and I looked at the maps daily. I think he would tell you that it was then that I “discovered” this cycling pattern.
Anyway, wow, here we go again, and there are features that are completely unique to this season. Go look at my blog at www.Weather2020.com that I am currently writing, and you can check out the KSHB weather blog as well.
A strong storm is moving into the eastern seaboard, and this storm is similar to another one that affected this same area weeks ago, but in an early season way.
Have a great start to the week! I am a huge Chiefs fan, disappointed today, but it’s just sports. We have Weather…………. Gary Lezak”
So, what happens next? Oh, this is not for the faint of heart. Take a look at this unique pattern being forecasted by the latest medium range forecasts:
The map above shows the 168 hour forecast. If you follow the weather closely, then you would know that the latest trend on the models, what Weather 2020 has been patiently waiting for to show up, is very different than what the models were predicting for the past two weeks. Read the last blog entry for more details.
If this model run is going to be correct, a lot has to happen. Let’s see what actually does happen in the next few days to two weeks. Thank you for sharing with us.
Check out the www.weatherblog.kshb.com (kshb weather blog) for more. I will add to these thoughts later in the week. Let us know if you are in that eastern storm. We, in KC, are jealous!
The winter forecast discussion begins below. But, first please let me inform you that this site will be going through a major facelift, and we have some exciting news that will be released in less than two weeks. Please look at our Facebook, Twitter, and other social media outlets for this news that will arrive soon.
Winter Forecast 2013-2014
The LRC has set up for the season and there is a potentially significant influence from a positive Arctic Oscillation! A wild winter ride begins now!
The past four winters have varied widely in Kansas City and across the Northern Hemisphere. Look at these seasonal snowfall totals for Kansas City & Chicago, IL:
Kansas City, MO Seasonal Snowfall Totals:
2009-2010: 44.2 inches (4th snowiest)
2010-2011: 36.9 inches (9th snowiest)
2011-2012: 3.9″ (Lowest snowfall total in recorded history)
2012-2013: 32.6″ (14th snowiest)
Chicago, IL Seasonal Snowfall Totals:
Four completely different weather patterns and three of the four winter snow seasons had high snowfall totals and one had the lowest snowfall total in Kansas City’s recorded weather history. What is going on here? And, what will happen this winter? We will go over some of the important features we have already experienced this fall, and features that will be returning during the next year and impacting the weather where you live across the Northern Hemisphere, whether you live in Los Angeles, CA, Denver, CO, New York City, or London, England.
We have a winter forecast formula that strongly emphasizes Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC). There are other factors that go into this weather forecasting formula, and if you can figure it all out, then you will be using, what we believe is, The Best Weather Forecasting Tool Known In The Field Of Meteorology today.
The LRC Forecast Formula:
LRC + knowledge of the Arctic Oscillation + the North Atlantic Oscillation + El Nino/La Nina + other wild card factors = Accurate long range weather forecast from hours to 300 days into the future
The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle)
A unique weather pattern sets up and evolves every year between the end of July into the first half of November. The most important weeks of this developing pattern are between October 1st and November 10th when the major features set up across the westerly belt of the Northern Hemisphere.
Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and are the predominant features that will exist and return on schedule through the next winter, spring, and into the first half of summer
The pattern is always cycling, but a new cycle length becomes established. Identifying this cycle length is challenging, but it usually is firmed up by the end of the calendar year and then our weather forecasts become even more accurate
We have identified a few of the major features in this weather pattern and we will discuss below, but first there has been an influence from very important features that we have identified as factors that must be considered each year. The LRC is dominant, but influenced by the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, other teleconnections, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). There is not an El Niño or La Niña in progress at the moment and we are forecasting near neutral conditions the rest of the winter. This is still important. Why? How does a neutral ENSO index influence a weather pattern? It does, and it is still something that you have to consider when making these forecasts.
Arctic Oscillation (AO) & The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
The AO and the NAO are both factors in the LRC forecast formula. When the AO and NAO index go higher into positive territory, like it did during the 2011-2012 warm winter, Arctic air is likely going to be held north across Canada with a farther north jet stream across North America. There was a strongly positive AO two years ago and the United States ended up having a very mild winter. Three of the previous four winters had strongly negative AO indexes, and, those three winters (2009-2010, 2010-2011, and 2012-2013) were cold and very snowy across the United States even though the weather patterns were quite different.
If the AO and NAO go negative, then Arctic air is much more likely to plunge south into the United States. The jet stream would be forced farther south and become energized. This stronger jet stream can lead to major winter storm systems. Again, if the AO and NAO do go deeply into the negative, the jet stream would likely shift farther south and lead to a more southern track of winter storm systems during this phase.
The trend has been for a positive AO and a closer to neutral NAO. Here are the indexes as of November 19, 2013:
The Climate Prediction Center keeps track of the AO index and has a graphic that indicates where the ensemble members of the GFS are dropping this index right now. Where will it go from here? We have also notice a likely lag coefficient, where the effects of a phase change tend to impact the weather pattern days to weeks later. This definitely something to pay close attention to. There is a strong trend for a positive index, at least at the beginning of this winter, which would favor warmer conditions. Remember, we believe this is just an influence on the overall pattern and there is a lot more to this cycling weather pattern.
This year’s developing weather pattern
Dominant feature #1: Long term long wave troughs and ridges have set up and we believe they are now established for the season and the weather pattern is cycling. We have identified two big features so far:
The first feature that showed up in late September and through October is shown above. We call this kind of trough an inside slider as it most often dives south near the west coast or just inland. Some of these may form just offshore and this will provide some nice rainfall for California at times this season. This is also a good sign that the Rocky Mountain and western ski resorts will have at least average if not above average snowfall this winter. Storm systems will track east and then kick out into the plains before ejecting north into southern Canada near the western Great Lakes. Severe weather season will likely be active across Tornado Alley next spring when this trough develops.
Dominant Feature #2: An eastern Canada long term long-wave trough
These three maps above show the eastern trough where storm systems will likely track into and intensify. There was a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes with this developing trough. The Arctic Oscillation was very high positive as this outbreak occurred. This part of the weather pattern, that produced the conditions for the severe weather outbreak, will be cycling through in each LRC cycle. This will likely lead to more severe weather, even during the winter, but especially as we move into the spring months. Will the AO index again be positive in the January version of this weather pattern? At this early stage of the cycling weather pattern there is a definite AO+ influence as the jet stream retreated north, as you can see on the November 19th 500 mb chart. When this happens, the computer models make tremendous errors, and they become even more unreliable. We are just now coming out of this positive AO/NAO phase as I am writing this blog post. Let’s see where these indexes go, positive, negative, or neutral, and we will continue our discussion in a few weeks.
What will this all mean for your location this winter? As described above, we have two main storm tracks. Storm track 1 is a bit more dominant than storm track 2 and we expect it to be a great ski season over the Rocky Mountains. Wet storm systems will eject out of this western trough and produce a few major winter storm systems in the plains and western Great Lakes. The southeastern states will have some nice warmer and dry periods. As we identify the cycle length of this year’s pattern Weather 2020 will be making more specific forecasts for when these storm systems and dry spells are likely going to arrive, through the winter, spring, and into next summer.
Storm track 2 will produce the conditions more favorable for many smaller snow events through the Great Lakes states.
The jet stream will be strengthening during the next few weeks. And, we are expecting amplification of the two main storm tracks. When the flow amplifies and blocks up, storm track one will feature a huge ridge off the west coast and this will provide the conditions for a major Arctic blast. This is likely twice this season and if it comes in phase with the western trough then major winter storms will hit the plains into the western Great Lakes hard. If it comes more in phase with storm track 2, which is less likely, there will be an increased chance of a winter storm farther east. The northeast will have a calmer winter compared to last year’s active winter which began with Super-Storm Sandy.
Kansas City’s Winter Forecast:
Near to above average temperatures
Above average rain and near to above average snowfall: 22″ of snow
Three small icing events, and a 60% chance of a moderate to strong ice storm over the KC viewing area
No chance of a drought next spring, in fact we are concerned for some flooding
Two major Arctic outbreaks
As soon as we know the cycle length of this year’s LRC Weather 2020 will be making more specific long range weather forecasts. We usually confirm a cycle date by early December. Right now we have an idea, but we just need around two to three more weeks.
We will provide an update to this forecast in the next two to three weeks. Weather 2020 is still analyzing this pattern closely as we will be identifying the cycle length to this year’s LRC. Weather2020.com will be going through a major facelift and we have some exciting news that we will share with you in two weeks! Please let us know if you have any questions or comments. Post them right here! Let’s share the United States weather together as this weather pattern unfolds this winter.
This site is just four weeks away from going through a major facelift. And, we have some special announcements soon. But, for now, let’s discuss this early stage of the weather pattern we are about to experience for the next year. Let’s take a look at October 4th from this year and the previous two years:
You can click on the top image, and then just click anywhere on the image to compare it to the next one. You will be able to see how different the patterns began. The October 4, 2013 image is above and then the next two maps are from October 4, 2012 and 2011. There are some very obvious differences, but this is just one day.
It will be quite fascinating to watch this all set up in the coming weeks. Here is the third map from two years ago:
Three different years, three different patterns. Remember, according to the LRC, the weather pattern evolves between October 1st and November 10th. This is just a very early stage of a much bigger picture that we will discuss later in the month.
Weather2020.com will be going through some significant changes in a few weeks! Check back in near the end of October as the new LRC sets up!
The weather pattern that we have been experiencing for almost a year is finally ending. Remember Super-Storm Sandy, well that part of the weather pattern would be returning, but instead new energy blasting towards the west coast is a strong indication that something brand new is now evolving. A unique weather pattern will be setting up between October 1st and November 10th, according to Lezak’s Recurring Cycle (LRC). This will be a weather pattern that has never existed before and we will only begin identifying what it is and what it will mean for the weather in your location in the next 4 to 12 weeks.
The 500 mb chart above is valid at 06z Saturday morning, or 1 AM Central Time. Energy is being ejected out as it blasts into a big ridge aloft. And, then by Saturday night, below, new energy is moving across the west coast:
This energy will be helping a storm move into the Pacific Northwest coast and then by early next week, below, the old pattern still is hanging on as a very weak storm moves off the northeast coast and the jet energy continues to move over the west coast. This new jet energy coming into the west is unlike anything we saw last year. This is the beginning of the new pattern which will evolve over weeks.
New temperature gradients become established by mid-October based on temperatures of the oceans and land. This ”fluid” follows a pattern based on these well-established temperature gradients at the surface and aloft and LRC 2013-2014 will show up in the next three weeks. We are experiencing the very early stages of these developments right now.
Weather2020.com will be going through a major face lift with some exciting developments by the end of October. We will update you in a few weeks and let you know when we will launch our new site. Have a great weekend!
First of all, we have some exciting new developments that will be coming out this fall. We will share them with you later in September. For now, let’s open the discussion of a comparison between the summer version of the LRC how the weather pattern continues to cycle at between 51 and 57 days, even as the jet stream is reaching it’s weakest point. The jet stream is created by tremendous temperature contrast (the thermal wind) and this temperature gradient reaches it’s weakest point in late July and early August. It reaches it’s strongest point in Late January to early February. After the jet stream reaches it’s weakest point the new LRC begins to evolve between August and October. For now, we can show you that it the pattern is still directly related to the one that set up last fall, LRC 2012-2013. Let’s compare the part of the pattern that happened just after Superstorm Sandy and now:
I posted these next two maps to show the comparison. It is not a coincidence, and our weather team has gone through extensive analysis and it isn’t just this one day, this snapshot in time. The entire pattern is cycling wavering between 51 and 57 days with the average being around 53 to 54 days. You can click on the first map, and then just click in the middle of each map to cycle between the two:
There are seasonal differences to the pattern, but if you look closely you may be able to see part of the big puzzle in the cycling weather pattern above us that we call Lezak’s Recurring Cycle. Have a great summer day and check back in for updates. Let us know if you have any questions.
It’s Friday, June 14th, one week from summer. What will the summer version of this year’s LRC mean to your location? The forecasts for this week have been some of the most accurate ones of the year using the LRC. The forecasts on our LRC Forecast Experience map for this week were made February 1st, or over 130 days ago. Yes, the forecast made over 130 days ago for most areas of the United States has been verifying this week. We were forecasting a very wet storm to track into the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states and it happened during the past 48 hours. Take a look at LRC Cycle 1 and how it compares to LRC Cycle 5:
And, this part of the pattern is the tail end of the “Superstorm Sandy” part of the cycling weather pattern. This was the storm system that happened a week after Superstorm Sandy. Just click on the top map and then click in the middle of the map to go back and forth. Another exhibit of this year’s cycling pattern. These two maps are 215 days apart, or right around a 53 to 54 day cycle. Have a great weekend.
Welcome to Weather 2020.com, a new weather site where you can get an accurate long range weather forecast.
Our team was expecting a good chance of a tropical system this week with stormy weather from Florida to New England. We made this forecast over 100 days ago, and it was accurate. We are moving into the second week of June and the pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC. Tropical Storm Andrea formed over the Gulf of Mexico and then got picked up by a storm moving through the Great Lakes. This is exactly what happened with Superstorm Sandy as you can see on the two maps below. Click on the first one to enlarge, then just click on the map and you can go back and forth to see how the patterns line up so well:
The Superstorm Sandy part of the weather pattern returns with another Tropical Storm, and guess where it is headed today? NEW JERSEY AGAIN!
Tropical Storm Andrea moved inland over Florida last night and it is being picked up by a late spring storm moving across the Great Lakes. By this afternoon the surface low will be near the New Jersey shore spreading heavy flooding rains up the east coast. This is a storm we thought would happen and it was forecast by our weather team 15o days ago, but we could have made a 200 day forecast based on what happened with Superstorm Sandy. We thought that there would be a chance of a tropical system heading north up the east coast, and it has happened. And, it was actually a tropical storm as Andrea formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but then got caught up in the larger scale flow as described by the LRC. I have posted LRC Cycle 1, 2, 3 and 5 below. The same pattern continues to cycle and we are just now experiencing the last spring version of the LRC as summer is approaching. Take a look at the three surface maps below:
And, what about LRC cycle 3? Remember the Northeast Blizzard? Yes, the Superstorm Sandy part of the weather pattern has produced major storm systems in every cycle near the New Jersey shore. Here is the surface map from the February blizzard on February 10, 2013:
What will the July version bring? It will be interesting to see, but the jet stream will be at it’s weakest and farthest north point in late July. It will be there though. Have a great day.
The month of May began with a rare late season snowstorm in the central plains and ended with a tornado outbreak. Very sad news came out of Oklahoma today that the storm chasers from the Discovery Channel were killed. A Weather Channel vehicle was also tossed but they were fortunate to survive. This storm was well predicted over a 100 days ago by our Weather 2020 team as you can see below.
We experienced a taste of all four seasons in May. Well, it was more than just a taste as there was an accumulation of snow on May 2, 3, and 4th; 90 degree heat made a brief appearance; there was an EF1 tornado just southeast of Kansas City near the Whiteman Airforce Base; there was some cool fall like weather at times. Here are the stats for KC:
I am just getting started on this blog…
So, where are we in the LRC? Well, let’s begin with the forecast on the LRC Forecast Experience that was made February 1, 2013:
“Forecast made February 1st (We don’t usually have to change the forecast much because we have a special forecast formula that allows this forecast to initially be accurate): This is a good week to plan a storm chase. Severe weather season is peaking and this should be an active week. There will be two or three chances of severe thunderstorms, the best of which is more likely later in the week. Expect near seasonal averages. Check back in when we get within around 40 or 50 days.”
How did we know? Well, let’s start by going back just one cycle and compare it to the energy that blasted over the west coast this week:
The above two maps show the energy diving in across the western states on April 7th and May 29th. And, these two maps below show how the storm matures near the same spot in both cycles:
As this storm moved in we had days of severe weather events including the deadly day on May 31st across Oklahoma where 10 people died, all in their cars. Storm chasers were killed in an unfortunate encounter with the El Reno, Ok supercell. There were EF3 tornadoes near St. Louis as well, and there was also a tornado in St. Louis in the previous cycle of this weather pattern.
So, how does this first week of June fit into the complex LRC weather puzzle? I just posted this next map on the KSHB Weather Blog and then went back to cycle 1:
Two storm systems are moving across the United States this week. Compare the forecast map above to what happened in this same part of the weather pattern just after Superstorm Sandy on November 4th:
Amazingly similar don’t you think? These two dates are 216 days apart, or a 54 day cycle, right down the middle of what we have been experiencing as a 51 to 57 day cycle. Yes, the pattern continues to cycle as we move through the fifth cycle and into the summer version of this weather pattern within two to three weeks.
I think we have laid it out there to show you this cycling pattern according to the LRC. It is cycling, our forecasts have been verifying, and we are ready for summer which will arrive soon. The jet stream will be retreating north and this horrible tornado season will come to an end. The pattern w0n’t be ending, however. The summer version of this year’s LRC will be interesting to track and we will keep you updated.
Have a great start to your first week of June. Another storm, right on schedule, is moving out into the plains. It is not as strong as the last few storm systems.
A very rare late season snow fell across some higher elevations of New England early in the holiday weekend. And, for those of you who have been following the LRC it should not be a surprise that this is the part of the weather pattern that produced the Boston Blizzard in February, and Superstorm Sandy in late October.
And, now, a rather wild week of severe weather is in the forecast. Well, from Weather 2020 it has been in the forecast for 100 days now. Let’s look at what just happened and how it compares to the weather pattern in previous cycles:
The storm that just produced the late season snow is directly related to the storm that produced the blizzard, and to the storm that cycled through the first cycle of this year’s LRC weather pattern just after Superstorm Sandy blasted the east east. LRC Cycle 5 above from May 25th is the map above, and LRC Cycle 3 from February 9th is below. These two parts of the cycle are 105 days apart (52.5 days):
LRC Cycle 3 Above, and LRC Cycle 1 from November 2nd is below. These two parts of the cycling pattern are 99 days apart, but it really can be traced to four days earlier around October 29th-30th, which would be right on cycle when Superstorm Sandy was striking the east coast. This would be around 103 days apart. Superstorm Sandy was in cycle one as this pattern was still establishing itself.
So, we are now in the part of the pattern that eventually produces another eastern storm in a week or so in each cycle. As this energy moves through the western states and out into the plains there will be some enhanced severe weather risks, something we have been forecasting for Memorial Day week since February 1st.